New Theories on How Decision Making Can be Improved

In their article “How Can Decision Making be Improved”, Milkman, Chugh and Bzerman discuss some of the ways in which decision makers are biased and how they can attempt to overcome these biases in order to make decisions more optimally. They discuss some of the reasons why effective decision making is important. They then go on to discuss how decision making can be improved.
The authors begin by addressing the fact that errors have many costs associated with them. The authors say that as we are becoming more industrialized and dependent on knowledge, the costs for making poor decisions are higher. Therefore, it is important to understand outcomes and how those outcomes can be improved. This means that decision makers need to know more about their strategies to make better decisions.
The authors say that academic research is expected to help with improving decision making. Professionals in different fields are conducting research to better understand how decisions are made. By understanding how human beings make decisions, they can help them establish how to make decisions better.
The authors discuss some of the theories that have been proposed to prevent against biased decision making. Earlier theories stressed the importance about warning against biases and understanding them, and supplying feedback and offering programs to educate against these biases. Unfortunately, research suggests that these approaches do not seem to be very effective. Newer research has focused more on cognitive processes.
The article stresses how people often lack important information about making decisions or the information they need to analyze in the decision. One theory is that people use two different types of thinking: System 1 and System2. System 1 thinking tends to be faster, more careless and more emotional. System 2 thinking on the other hand is slower, more logical and more careful. When people lack information or feel rushed to make a decision, decision makers are more likely to resort to System 1 thinking.
The authors claim that it is possible to move from System 1 to System 2 thinking. One of their suggestions is for decision makers to use formal analytical processes in exchange of intuition. If data is available that shows a link between two variables, decision makers can create a model or formula to help them make a more thought-out decision. Empirical evidence has shown that using this kind of model results in better decisions.
Another option to improve System 2 thinking is to try to view the situation from the perspective of an outsider. This approach has led to decision makers reducing their overconfidence about the amount of knowledge they had about the problem and being unrealistic about the amount of time it would take them to complete a project or how likely they were to be successful. Decision makers can also be encouraged to play “devil’s advocate” with themselves to reduce decision making biases such as overconfidence, hindsight bias and anchoring.
The authors also discuss a study conducted by Slovic and Fischoff to combat the effects of hindsight bias. Slovic and Fischoff believed that subjects experienced hindsight bias when they were not willing to draw on their knowledge of past situations and apply that knowledge to make a decision. Another group of researchers conducted research which concluded that decision makers need to consider the contributions of other people they are working with in order to overcome this decision making bias. A number of groups have also conducted research that suggests that decision making biases can be overcome by analogical thinking. Finally, decision making biases can be overcome by considering many options simultaneously rather than considering each of them separately.
The authors continue to emphasize through most of the article that System 2 thinking seems to lead to better decisions than System 1 thinking. However, the end of the article discusses how System 1 thinking can also be used in decision making. They describe how the unconscious mind can identify solutions that may be overlooked by the conscious. A new theory has been established which involves changing the environment in which System 1 thinking takes place to improve the decision making process. This strategy involves simulating the environment where the decision would take place so that the decision maker can get a better understanding of how they will be making the decision. This process can help decision makers be more honest about decision making biases they do not like to admit to.